Hitting the ground running in September 2024 – Setting priorities for Y11 as a KS4 Leader in Cymru / Wales
Now that the autumn term is underway for schools in Wales, here are some reflections from Alps on setting priorities for Y11.
1. Understand your context: GCSE attainment
- In Wales the 2024 national GCSE results returned to pre-pandemic standards.
- Table 1 shows the results for 16-year-olds in Wales in 2024 and previous years.
- 2% of all 2024 awards for 16-year-olds in Wales were at grade C+, 2.8% lower than in 2023 and 0.6% lower than in 2019.
- 2024 results for 16-year-olds in Wales were lower at all thresholds than in the final ‘transitional’ year of 2023.
- Results for 16-year-olds in Wales at A*-A and A* were slightly higher in 2024 than in 2019, but were lower than in 2019 at all other thresholds.
- Results at key thresholds for 16-year-olds were lower in Wales than in England in 2024 and considerably lower than in Northern Ireland.
The infographic from Qualifications Wales provides a useful visual summary.
Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?
2. Understand your context: Capped 9 subject results
Tables 3 to 6 below, from JCQ show the best results achieved by the 2024 cohort in Literacy and Numeracy and compares with all years since 2017:
- In 2024, results in all four subjects were lower at A*, A*-A and A*-C than in 2023. At A*-G, results are broadly the same as in 2023, apart from mathematics where there has been a 1.9% decrease in the pass rate.
- Results in 2024 for English language, Welsh language and mathematics have fallen below 2019 levels at A*, A*-C and A*-G, however in numeracy, results were higher in 2024 at A*, A*-A, A*-C and A*-G.
- Table 7 shows the results in 2024 in the sciences (as well as French, geography and history).
Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?
3. Understand your context: Skills Challenge Certificate results.
- The 2024 results were slightly higher at A*-B+ compared to 2023 and higher than in 2019 at A*-C+ as Table 8 above from Qualifications Wales demonstrates.
4. Understanding your gender gap at GCSE
- Girls continue to out-perform boys at KS4, for example by 6.3% at A+ and almost 8% at C+.
- Table 9 below from JCQ compares the gender gaps through time from 2018 to 2024.
5. Understanding your eFSM gap at GCSE
- Figures for 2024 are not yet available.
- Table 10 below, from Welsh Government tabulates the gaps from 2016 to 2023.
Question to ask yourself: How does your school’s performance compare with these national figures?
6. Set priorities based on your school or college’s KS4 performance in 2024 – Key questions for this time of year:
- How does your 2024 Capped 9 score compare with 2023?
- How do your Alps’ strategic indicators compare with previous years?
- Which subjects were your shining value-added stars?
- Which subjects with significant cohort numbers were blue (matching the bottom 25% nationally)?
- Which subjects saw value-added drop most significantly?
- Did any significant student groups perform poorly? How did your eFSM students perform?
- Are there any anomalies or surprises in your teaching set performance?
- Are there trends across subjects which are set by ability?
- Which departments require additional support/resources in 2024-25?
- Do you need to adjust your strategic priorities for 2024-25?
- What are you doing right now to try to consolidate strengths and eradicate weaknesses in 2024-25?
7. Set priorities based on your new Y11’s end of Y10 data – Key questions and suggestions for this time of year:
- In terms of Capped 9 our advice is to keep a tight focus on the Literacy, Numeracy and Science slots as these slots contain most of the subjects taken by all your students. Beyond that, your other most populous subjects, for example the Welsh Baccalaureate Skills Challenge Certificate, will have the biggest impact on student outcomes, post-16 pathways and your Capped 9 points score.
- What strategic ‘data’ priorities had already emerged before the end of the Summer Term in Year 10?
- What priorities relating to attendance or attitude to learning or mental health etc were significant issues during Y10?
- At Alps, we suggest uploading a Monitoring Point Zero (MPZ) at the start of Y11. Essentially this is your final Y10 assessment data but adjusted so all Y11 teachers can see their Y11 set’s baseline based on end of Y10 performance.
- Which other priorities are now in place because of any disappointing surprises in terms of your 2024 KS4 results?
8. Best practice – Key suggestions for this time of year:
- The academic year often begins with in-depth evaluation of results in Raising Standards meetings with subject leads. Perhaps in September 2024 these meetings need a focus on current Y11, where they appear to be based on Y10 assessment, and how best to move forwards effectively.
- As always, we recommend that you prioritise those things you can control, such as the quality of teaching and learning, the quality of guidance and support, and the quality of your leadership at all levels.
- Create a realistic assessment timetable with subject leads to enable students to practice and master the skills required in examinations.
- Use Alps Connect effectively throughout the year to help identify subjects, sets, student groups and students for support (and praise).
- At Alps we recommend a sharp focus on the subjects that are taken by all or most of your Y11 cohort as these subjects will have the most significant impact on this cohort’s outcomes and post-16 pathways as well as your Capped 9 points score and Alps value-added.
- Do all you can to be relentlessly positive both with your students and their teachers.
- Your top priority must involve putting the students’ needs and interests first, aiming for each to reach their potential and, perhaps crucially, to achieve positive post-16 pathways.
9. Tracking Y11 in Connect during 2024-25
- During 2024-25, Alps will continue to offer the 2019 data set for schools to track progress against. As in 2024, Qualifications Wales now intends for all results to return to pre-pandemic ‘2019’ standards.
- Schools should use whichever WNT tests they have for students in this cohort to act as their KS4 baseline, for example Y7, Y8 or Y9.
- If students have taken no Welsh National tests, CAT4 MEAN SAS results may be used as a prior attainment baseline.
This blog is a companion piece to our Alps webinar ‘Hitting the Ground Running: KS4 Wales which goes out live at 3.30pm on Thursday 5th October. This webinar will also demonstrate how to use Alps Connect most effectively when tracking progress.
About the author: John Philip
John started working with Alps in 2008, while he was working at Little Heath Comprehensive School. At Little Heath, John used
Alps to achieve top 2% performance in value-added terms. He also worked with schools regionally and nationally through the
Raising Achievement Partnership Programme. Since leaving Little Heath in 2010, John additionally works as an associate for
22 secondary schools through PiXL.
This blog is a companion piece to our Alps webinar ‘Hitting the Ground Running: KS5 Wales’, one of our Alps Champion Webinars available to Alps customers.
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