Monitoring Year 9 and 10 using Scaled Scores from September
Alps puts students with similar prior attainment (PA) into bands, both to help establish aspirational Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs) at the 75th% nationally and to then provide crisp and clear progress analysis mid-year and based on results.
The shift from KS2 SATs with results based on Levels to SATs based on scaled scores provides everyone with a challenge as although no students with scaled scores have achieved GCSE results to date, the Y11 cohort in 2020-21 is the first cohort to have achieved scaled score results at KS2.
The Secondary Accountability Measures Guide (February 2020) tells schools that ‘the first GCSE results for pupils with key stage 2 scaled scores will not be available until 2021. We will provide information about how scaled scores will be used in Progress 8 before then’.
Until 2019-20 schools have relied on the most recent Attainment 8 (AT8) averages (based on analysis of the most recent set of GCSE results) to track progress towards KS4.
Of course, GCSE exams have been cancelled and Progress 8 suspended for 2020 because of the pandemic and there will be no AT8 averages based on 2020 ‘calculated’ results. Even if there were, they would be based on the achievement of students with KS2 fine KS2 levels.
Year 10 have had significant disruption to their normal in-school learning since March that seems set to continue for much of the remainder of the current academic year.
There have already been calls from educational leaders for Progress 8 and other accountability measures to also be suspended for this cohort.
At Alps we have responded to the challenge schools will be facing in 2020-21 by thorough analysis of the national distribution of KS2 scaled scores 2016-2019. Our aim has been to provide a secure comparison between the proportions of students to have traditionally achieved each KS2 sub-level (e.g. 4a, 4b, 4c) and those achieving scaled scores in order to provide schools with a secure baseline to measure progress from with Y11 in 2020-21.
Table 1 below shows the mean and median KS2 standardised scaled scores 2016-19.
Table 1
| Year | Mean | Median | Range |
| 2016 | 102.9 | 103.5 | 80-120 |
| 2017 | 104.2 | 105.0 | 80-120 |
| 2018 | 104.8 | 105.5 | 80-120 |
| 2019 | 104.8 | 105.5 | 80-120 |
Table 2 below shows the distribution of standardised scaled scores in each of 2016-2019.
Table 2
Table 3 below shows the standardised scaled score in each of 2016-2019 that most closely aligns with the fine levels that defined the boundaries between KS2 sub-levels.
Table 3
| KS2 Fine Level | Scaled Score 2016 | Scaled Score 2017 | Scaled Score 2018 | Scaled Score 2019 |
| 5.67 | 113.5 | 115 | 115 | 115 |
| 5.33 | 108 | 109.5 | 110 | 110 |
| 5.00 | 104.5 | 106 | 106.5 | 106.5 |
| 4.67 | 101 | 102.5 | 103.5 | 103.5 |
| 4.33 | 97.5 | 98.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 |
| 4.00 | 94.5 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| 3.67 | 92 | 92.5 | 93.5 | 93 |
| 3.33 | 90 | 90 | 90.5 | 90.5 |
| <3.00 | 88 | 87.5 | 88.5 | 88 |
Whilst it would be possible, we do not think it would be helpful to schools to define different Prior Attainment bands for each cohort. The slight outlier would appear to be 2016 – the first year of the new tests and the year in which the equivalent scores tend to have been slightly lower.
Table 4 below shows our suggested PA bands and Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs):
Table 4
| PA Band | KS2 Fine Levels | KS2 Scaled Scores | MEG |
| 1 | 5.67+ | 115+ | 9/8 |
| 2 | 5.33 -< 5.67 | 110–<115 | 7 |
| 3 | 5.00 -< 5.33 | 107–<110 | 6 |
| 4 | 4.67 -< 5.00 | 104–<107 | 5 |
| 5 | 4.33 -< 4.67 | 100–<104 | 5/4 |
| 6 | 4.00 -< 4.33 | 96–<100 | 4 |
| 7 | 3.67 -< 4.00 | 94–<96 | 3 |
| 8 | 3.33 -< 3.67 | 91–<94 | 3 |
| 9 | 3.00 -< 3.33 | 89–<91 | 3 |
| 10 | 0.00 -< 3.00 | 80–<89 | 2 |
Table 5 bands compares Alps MEGs with the AT8 estimates published in February 2020, based on 2019 results:
Table 5
| KS2 Fine Level | KS2 Sub Level | KS2 Scaled Scores | AT8 Estimate Feb 2020 | MEG |
| 5.67+ | 5a | 115+ | 7.43 – 7.92 | 9/8 |
| 5.33–<5.67 | 5b | 110–<115 | 5.81-7.43 | 7 |
| 5.00–<5.33 | 5c | 107–<110 | 4.92-5.81 | 6 |
| 4.67–<5.00 | 4a | 104–<107 | 4.19-4.92 | 5 |
| 4.33–<4.67 | 4b | 100–<104 | 3.42-4.19 | 5/4 |
| 4.00–<4.33 | 4c | 96–<100 | 3.00-3.42 | 4 |
| 3.67–<4.00 | 3a | 94–<96 | 2.65-3.00 | 3 |
| 3.33–<3.67 | 3b | 91–<94 | 2.31-2.65 | 3 |
| 3.00–<3.33 | 3c | 89–<91 | 2.06-2.31 | 3 |
| 0.00–<3.00 | <3 | 80–<89 | 1.51-2.06 | 2 |
See below for full table of AT8 Estimates
Table 6 bands students into HPA, MPA and LPA based on their standardised scaled scores.
Table 6
| PA Band | KS2 Fine Levels | KS2 Scaled Scores |
| HPA | 5.00+ | 107+ |
| MPA | 4.00 -< 5.00 | 96–<107 |
| LPA | < 4.00 | <96 |
Minimum Expected Grades are set at the 75th% nationally (Top 25%) and are not meant to impose a ceiling on your target-setting processes with individual students. Many of the most successful Alps schools – who have gained equally impressive Progress 8 scores – set Personalised Targets for students in each subject that challenge them to be the best they might possibly be. They use the MEGs as a baseline to add appropriate challenge to.
If you are interested in using our secure, online and interactive software to set aspirational targets in KS4 in 2020-21 and to track progress by subject, student, student group and by whole-school using your monitoring data we will be happy to discuss this with you.
We are running a series of Why Use Alps to analyse your value-added progress in 2020-21 webinars in June and July and you can access further details and register on these free events here:
If you require further information, please contact our Educational Team on 01484 887600 or via info@alps.education.
The full table of AT8 Estimates
