Setting Aspirational Minimum Expected Grades for students with KS2 scaled scores (England)

14th June 2019

Alps puts students with similar prior attainment (PA) into bands, both to help establish aspirational Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs) at the 75th% nationally and to then provide crisp and clear progress analysis mid-year and based on results. 

The shift from KS2 SATs with results based on Levels to SATs based on scaled scores provides everyone with a challenge as although no students with scaled scores have achieved GCSE results to date, the Y11 cohort in 2020-21 is the first cohort to have achieved scaled score results at KS2. 

The Secondary Accountability Measures Guide (February 2020) tells schools that ‘the first GCSE results for pupils with key stage 2 scaled scores will not be available until 2021. We will provide information about how scaled scores will be used in Progress 8 before then.  

Until 2019-20 schools have relied on the most recent Attainment 8 (AT8) averages (based on analysis of the most recent set of GCSE results) to track progress towards KS4. 

Of course, GCSE exams have been cancelled and Progress 8 suspended for 2020 because of the pandemic and there will be no AT8 averages based on 2020 ‘calculated’ results. Even if there were, they would be based on the achievement of students with KS2 fine KS2 levels.

Year 10 have had significant disruption to their normal in-school learning since March that seems set to continue for much of the remainder of the current academic year.

There have already been calls from educational leaders for Progress 8 and other accountability measures to also be suspended for this cohort. 

At Alps we have responded to the challenge schools will be facing in 2020-21 by thorough analysis of the national distribution of KS2 scaled scores 2016-2019. Our aim has been to provide a secure comparison between the proportions of students to have traditionally achieved each KS2 sub-level (e.g. 4a, 4b, 4c) and those achieving scaled scores in order to provide schools with a secure baseline to measure progress from with Y11 in 2020-21. 

Table 1 below shows the mean and median KS2 standardised scaled scores 2016-19. 

Table 1

Year Mean Median Range 
2016 102.9 103.5 80-120 
2017 104.2 105.0 80-120 
2018 104.8 105.5 80-120 
2019 104.8 105.5 80-120 

 

Table 2 below shows the distribution of standardised scaled scores in each of 2016-2019. 

 

Table 2

Chart showing distribution of standardised scaled scores in each of 2016-2019

Table 3 below shows the standardised scaled score in each of 2016-2019 that most closely aligns with the fine levels that defined the boundaries between KS2 sub-levels. 

Table 3

KS2 Fine Level Scaled Score 2016 Scaled Score 2017 Scaled Score 2018 Scaled Score 2019 
5.67 113.5 115 115 115 
5.33 108 109.5 110 110 
5.00 104.5 106 106.5 106.5 
4.67 101 102.5 103.5 103.5 
4.33 97.5 98.5 99.5 99.5 
4.00 94.5 95 96 96 
3.67 92 92.5 93.5 93 
3.33 90 90 90.5 90.5 
<3.00 88 87.5 88.5 88 

 

Whilst it would be possible, we do not think it would be helpful to schools to define different Prior Attainment bands for each cohort. The slight outlier would appear to be 2016 – the first year of the new tests and the year in which the equivalent scores tend to have been slightly lower.

Table 4 below shows our suggested PA bands and Minimum Expected Grades (MEGs): 

Table 4

PA Band KS2 

Fine      

Levels 

KS2 Scaled Scores MEG 
1 5.67+ 115+ 9/8 
2 5.33 -< 5.67 110–<115 7 
3 5.00 -< 5.33 107–<110 6 
4 4.67 -< 5.00 104–<107 5 
5 4.33 -< 4.67 100–<104 5/4 
6 4.00 -< 4.33 96–<100 4 
7 3.67 -< 4.00 94–<96 3 
8 3.33 -< 3.67 91–<94 3 
9 3.00 -< 3.33 89–<91 3 
10 0.00 -< 3.00 80–<89 2 

 

Table 5 bands compares Alps MEGs with the AT8 estimates published in February 2020, based on 2019 results: 

Table 5

KS2 Fine Level KS2     Sub Level KS2 Scaled Scores AT8 Estimate Feb 2020 MEG 
5.67+ 5a 115+ 7.43 – 7.92 9/8 
5.33–<5.67 5b 110–<115 5.81-7.43 7 
5.00–<5.33 5c 107–<110 4.92-5.81 6 
4.67–<5.00 4a 104–<107 4.19-4.92 5 
4.33–<4.67 4b 100–<104 3.42-4.19 5/4 
4.00–<4.33 4c 96–<100 3.00-3.42 4 
3.67–<4.00 3a 94–<96 2.65-3.00 3 
3.33–<3.67 3b 91–<94 2.31-2.65 3 
3.00–<3.33 3c 89–<91 2.06-2.31 3 
0.00–<3.00 <3 80–<89 1.51-2.06 2 

See below for full table of AT8 Estimates

Table 6 bands students into HPA, MPA and LPA based on their standardised scaled scores. 

Table 6

PA Band KS2      

Fine Levels 

KS2  

Scaled Scores 

HPA 5.00+ 107+ 
MPA 4.00 -< 5.00 96–<107 
LPA < 4.00 <96 

 

Minimum Expected Grades are set at the 75th% nationally (Top 25%) and are not meant to impose a ceiling on your target-setting processes with individual students. Many of the most successful Alps schools – who have gained equally impressive Progress 8 scores – set Personalised Targets for students in each subject that challenge them to be the best they might possibly be. They use the MEGs as a baseline to add appropriate challenge to. 

If you are interested in using our secure, online and interactive software to set aspirational targets in KS4 in 2020-21 and to track progress by subject, student, student group and by whole-school using your monitoring data we will be happy to discuss this with you. 

We are running a series of Why Use Alps to analyse your value-added progress in 2020-21 webinars in June and July and you can access further details and register on these free events here:

View listings and register for Alps summer webinars

If you require further information, please contact our Educational Team on 01484 887600 or via info@alps.education. 

The full table of AT8 Estimates

Need more information?

If you would like any further information, please contact one of our expert advisers.

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