Wales KS4 & 5 Examination Results 2025: What to expect this summer?

Blog written by Alps Educational Consultant, John Roe. 

In this blog, John looks ahead to what we might expect to see this summer in terms of examination results in Wales.

Getting Results Day Ready

Results days in schools and colleges are incredibly busy times for both teaching and non-teaching staff. Preparing well in the summer term is therefore key to ensuring that the days run smoothly. In my recent blog ‘Getting Results Day Ready’, I share my top tips to help colleagues prepare ahead for those busy days in August.

In this blog, I anticipate what we are likely to see in terms of attainment and the implications regarding value-added analysis.

A-Level Results

In 2024, A-level results in Wales returned to standards broadly in line with results awarded in 2019. Results in 2024 fell more steeply from 2023 at A*-B and upwards and were higher in 2024 than 2019 except at A*-D and below.

Table 1. A-level attainment profile 2019-2024

Source: JCQ

In their review of the 2024 summer examination series, Qualifications Wales stated that “grade boundaries were set to achieve (as far as was possible) outcomes that were broadly similar to pre-pandemic outcomes. This means that, if necessary, grade boundaries were positioned to avoid outcomes falling substantially below those of 2019, unless there was variation in the cohort entered.”

Figure 1 shows that from an individual subject perspective, there was however variation particularly when comparing outcomes across specific grades e.g. A*.

Figure 1. Percentage of A* grades awarded in 2019, 2023 and 2024 for selected subjects

Source: JCQ

For some subjects such as Biology, English Literature and Mathematics, the proportion of A* grades awarded in 2024 was very similar to those awarded in 2019. In other subjects, the proportion of A* grades awarded was significantly higher (e.g. Welsh Second Language), or lower (e.g. German).

So, as we look ahead to results in 2025, Qualifications Wales have indicated that the transition to pre-pandemic grading is now complete. In her April blog, Kerry Davies, Head of General Qualifications Monitoring and Standards stated that “this summer, the quality of work (the level of knowledge, skills and understanding) that awarding committees will be looking for at each grade will be the same quality, or standard, as it was for equivalent grades before the pandemic.”  Although this may lead to grade boundaries increasing in some subjects – compared to where they have been in recent years, Qualifications Wales are expecting outcomes to be broadly similar to pre-pandemic outcomes in most subjects. It is however likely we will continue to see some variation in grades awarded across different subjects.

Although the attainment profile of the 2025 cohort is likely to be similar to 2019, the prior attainment of this cohort of learners is likely to be higher. This is because their GCSE grades were awarded in 2023 where results were awarded at the midpoint between 2022 and 2019. To support schools and colleges with their analysis in what is another unique year in Wales, Alps will be generating Alps Provider A-level benchmarks in early September. These benchmark sets will also include the Level 3 Advanced Skills Baccalaureate Wales qualification which has results awarded for the first time this summer. In the weeks that follow, we will also explore the possibility of generating provider benchmarks for key KS5 vocational qualifications in Wales.

AS-level Results

In 2024, AS-level results in Wales also returned to standards broadly in line with results in 2019 with attainment outcomes expected to be similar in 2025. Unlike the A-level cohort, students sitting AS exams this summer are also likely to have a similar prior attainment profile to the cohort in 2019, as their GCSE results were awarded in 2024.

Table 2. AS-level attainment profile 2019-2024

Source: JCQ

GCSE Results

GCSE grades also fell in 2024 from the previous year as Qualifications Wales returned grading towards 2019 standards. Results were slightly lower than in 2019 except at A grades and above.

Table 3. GCSE Attainment profile 2019-2024

16-year-olds in Wales, A*-G full course GCSEs plus Double Award Science, summer series.

Source: JCQ

As with Post 16 results, Qualifications Wales have indicated that outcomes will be broadly similar to both 2024 and 2019, but again I think it is reasonable to expect some variation in grades awarded across different subjects.

In 2024, the KS4 Skills Challenge Certificate was an outlier in terms of grading, with results awarded slightly higher at A*-B and above compared to 2023, and higher than in 2019 at A*-C and above. It will be interesting to see if a similar upward trend is observed in 2025.

At KS4, a big focus in the schools and colleges I have been working with in Wales continues to be improving the performance of both male and eFSM students. In 2024, female students continued to outperform their male counterparts at GCSE in all key outcome bands. For example, at A/7 and above the gap was 6.3%, whilst at C/4 and above the gap was almost 8%.

Table 4. GCSE results in Wales by gender (percentage of grades awarded)

All learners in Wales, all awarding bodies, full courses GCSEs plus Double Award Science, summer series.

Source: JCQ

Female students also scored higher in the Capped 9 indicator in 2024, however Welsh government data (updated in December 2024) reveals that the gap between male and female students narrowed in 2024, from 24.0 to 22.2 points and was lower than the gap of 32.9 points that existed in 2019.

Students not eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) again scored higher in the Capped 9 Indicator than students who were eligible for FSM. However, in 2024, the gap narrowed to 79.6 points from 87.1 points in 2023. This is now much closer to the gap of 77.3 which existed in 2019.

Within Alps Connect, you can analyse and evaluate outcomes at three key levels: strategic, subject and student level. It is also easy to track the academic progress of key student groups, i.e. by gender, disadvantaged/non-disadvantaged, EAL, ALN status.

In addition to this, it is also possible within the Connect platform to upload custom groups. For example, you may want to analyse the progress made by Seren Academy students or investigate the impact poor attendance has had on your value-added outcomes.

End note from Alps 

We currently work with over 1,200 schools and colleges and 95 Groups and MATs in the UK and internationally, offering our high-quality analysis at both KS4 and KS5.

If you do not use Alps, but are interested in how Alps could support you to improve your outcomes, do not hesitate to contact one of our friendly team at [email protected]. You can also call us 01484 887600 and we will be delighted to speak to you, or you can book a demo with one of our knowledgeable team here.

About the author, John Roe:

John has worked in education for 22 years as a science teacher, head of department and pastoral lead.  John is passionate about creating an aspirational culture and supporting students to achieve their full potential. Prior to joining Alps, John was Director of Radyr Sixth Form in Cardiff for 10 years, where he lead the transformation of the sixth form with student outcomes consistently matching the performance of the top 2% nationally.